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| The Lady will prevail |
Currently on a state visit to Singapore with a delegation of ministers and businessmen, Myanmar president Thein Sein made his most explicit commitment to democratic reform and an overhaul of the moribund economy and government infrastructure.
"We want democracy to thrive" he declared, "I wish to assure you that I shall endeavour to establish a healthy democracy in Myanmar. We want a brighter future for our people." He asked the international community to support Myanmar's reform path, noting that the transition is fraught with challenges.
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| Pres.Thein Sein is serious |
A Singapore-Myanmar Technical Cooperation Agreement was signed to cover technical assistance and training for the legal, banking, finance, trade, tourism and urban planning sectors. Singapore will also provide English language, technical and vocational education to help Myanmar emerge from its decades of isolation and under-investment in manpower.
All through 2011 Myanmar has taken measures to release political prisoners, legalize its main opposition party and relax controls on media and the Internet. These are all part of a package of reforms known as the 'roadmap to democracy'. This time it looks real.
Courage to face a future that is unknown
Daw Aung San Suu Kyi has re-registered her National League for Democracy Party (NLDP) to contest the April 1 by-elections for 48 seats. These fell vacant when legislators were elevated to ministerial positions. Of the 48 seats, 40 are for the 420-strong Lower House, 6 for the Upper House and 2 for Regional Assemblies.
While the number of constituencies the NLDP is contesting seems small, it does set an important marker for representative democracy in Myanmar. There are a further 5 Lower House and 12 State/Region seats pending which were skipped during the November 2010 elections due to security concerns.
When queried about the wisdom of participating in a political framework defined by the military and stacked with regime proxies, the 66-year old Nobel Laureate is amazingly upbeat: "Elements in the government genuinely desire reform....if we wait only for solid guarantees, we can never proceed. We have to take risks. We need the courage to face a future that is really not known to us."
Even if the NLDP wins all the 40 Lower House seats it contests in April, it will still barely yield 9.5% of influence in parliament. The Lady's strong words and sharp challenge to the recently cobbled Constitution may seem Quixotic but she carries disproportionate moral authority within the country and internationally.
When she gets into parliament, she will be the voice of the people even if her party only has a tiny share of the seats. It is expected that the President may offer her a senior government role.
The Constitution needs to be changed!
On her first major campaign tour to the coastal region of Dawei, 615 Km south of Yangon last Sunday, she called for changes to the Constitution which reserves 25 percent of seats for the military, allows it to appoint cabinet ministers, unilaterally declare a state of emergency and run many critical government functions.
Dawei is where environmental activists protested successfully against the construction of a 4,000 megawatt coal-fired power plant which President Thein Sein surprisingly cancelled. Another 400 megawatt power plant is still on the drawing board as the region has been designated for major industrial projects of deep-sea port, steel mill and a petrochemical plant. Infrastructure of railways and highways are also planned to connect to Thailand.
"There are certain laws which are obstacles to the freedom of the people. We will strive to abolish these laws within the framework of parliament." She has also called for transparency and accountability of government. "Elections must be free and fair. Any government which lies must be removed."
She wants an end to the military harassment of ethnic minorities, which in Myanmar include the Kachins, Karens, Kerenni, Shan, Tavoyan and Mon. "If there is one person who remains without independence, it means the entire country lacks independence." She favours an alignment of central government and provincial interests through promotion of sustainable tourism and environmentally responsible development.
The internal warring since 1948 has drained government finances, diverting budgets to military spending without resolution. It has led to abuses in the field and increasing disaffection of the minorities. The alienation has allowed warlords in the provinces to build their own private armies to resist Yangon forces and give cover for smuggling of timber, gemstones and heroin which do not benefit their populations.
As the provinces are rich in natural resources, there is great economic incentive for the central government to seek access and control. Until there is an agreed platform to share benefits, resources will remain unharvested for development while all sides waste time on armed skirmishes. The people are caught in the middle.
Flashback: NLDP wins 1990 Election, gets disenfranchised
The 1990 elections were called by the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC) after the protests and riots of 1987 triggered by the cancellation of 25-, 35- and 75-Kyat notes without compensation. The street protests and their violent suppression brought down the military-inspired, nominally civilian government of the sole political party then allowed, the Burma Socialist Programme Party (BSPP). The generals shunted the BSPP front aside and suspended the constitution for military rule.
The BSPP had codified the "Burmese Way of Socialism" - a fusion of Nationalism, Buddhism and Marxism which continued to foster inefficient state control of the economy, rampant corruption, widespread cross-border smuggling, a huge black market in consumer goods and currency, plus an over-rated Kyat with confusing multiple exchange values, discouraging trade contracts.
The NLDP won more than 80% of parliamentary seats in the 1990 general election. SLORC prevented the convening of the new parliament, saying the elections were for drafting a new constitution. A National Convention (NC) was set up in 1993 to draft the new constitution. The NLDP withdrew from the NC in 1995 and was expelled shortly after. The NC was suspended in 1996.
In 1997 SLORC changed its name to the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC). This Orwellian re-labelling repeats every time a version of government promoted by the military fails. In Jan 2001 the SPDC announced a rapproachment with the NLDP, releasing about 200 of its imprisoned members and freeing The Lady from house arrest in May 2002.
On a tour of the north in 2003, Daw Suu Kyi's motorcade was assailed by armed thugs, leaving several of her supporters killed and injured. No group has been charged for the unprovoked attack. She was taken into 'protective custody'. That led to outraged international condemnation and dismay within ASEAN - of which Myanmar had become a full member in 1997. There is suspicion that the organized ambush of her motorcade was part of the internal tussle between progressive and hard-line factions within the regime.
With an economy on the brink of collapse and tightening economic sanctions by Western governments, the SPDC revived the National Convention, which met in spells through 2004, 2005 and 2006. It disallowed any query of the intentions of the SPDC and placed restrictions on the scope of debate. The NLDP continued to boycott the resurrected NC on grounds that many of its members were still in prison and the limitations placed on open discussion defeats its purpose.
SPDC held another nation-wide election in November 2010, boycotted by the NLDP and installed another nominally civilian administration called the Union Solidarity & Development Party (USDP) on March 30, 2011. General Thein Sein was elected president. He wears civilian clothes in office.
No revenge but continue economic sanctions
The Lady - as she is affectionately known, has been consistent in not seeking the overthrow of the regime that disenfranchised her party. She advocates meaningful dialogue but insists on the continuation of economic sanctions by Western governments and international bodies like the United Nations.
Her insistence on blocking Western aid and trade has upset many local NGOs starved of funding for much needed basic medical, rural agriculture and education programs. The sanctions have also delayed vital investment in infrastructure for highways, bridges, railways, communications, power, water etc. The prolonged sanctions and economic isolation have hit ordinary people the most.
She must be aware of the hardships suffered daily by Myanmar citizens but is keenly conscious that allowing premature withdrawal of economic sanctions will not push the democracy agenda forward but only prolong military rule. She opted to focus on democratic reform and getting the military back to barracks.
She says the international community is poised to help Myanmar "once we are on an irreversible road to democracy." She is pushing for that momentum to be unstoppable.
Military men smile on The Lady
Her unwavering stand may have convinced the junta that rehabilitating her could unlock desperately needed foreign investment, expertise, technology, aid and trade.
President Thein Sein surprised citizens and political observers when he invited Daw Aung San Suu Kyi to his official residence for a meeting on August 19, 2011. He discussed the 7-point roadmap to democracy with her and pledged 'step-by-step' progress, suggesting positive co-operation as the way forward.
She was then invited to the government-sponsored conference on macro-economic reforms where she was accorded VVIP status. The change of attitude was evident in the welcoming smiles of the generals and bureaucrats - many jostling for photo opps with her!
Another 600 NLDP and other opposition members have been released from prisons. The government says there are no more political prisoners in detention. Many dissidents have been charged with 'criminal activity' as defined by the military. The claim of no more political prisoners is contested by dissidents and their families.
The Lady's meeting with the president was reported on front pages with pictures. The routine vitriolic commentary against her and her party has disappeared from State press. Her portraits are openly displayed and sold on the streets along with T-shirts and NLDP flags.
Both Hilary Clinton, US Secretary of State and William Hague, British Foreign Secretary made high-profile trips to Yangon recently to encourage the process of democratisation. The US has since declared it will upgrade its representation to full ambassador status as the reforms continue.
Daw Aung San Suu Kyi has taken the generals at their word. She has placed her trust in the 'roadmap to democracy' at enormous risk to herself and her supporters. ASEAN's strategy of 'constructive engagement' seems to be finally yielding positive results, while the West's sanctions add urgency.
Myanmar is due to assume chairmanship of ASEAN in 2014. The world hopes to welcome Myanmar as a responsible member of the international community before then.
ENDS
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