In a startlingly 19th Century show of managerial machismo, Qantas CEO Alan Joyce unilaterally grounded its entire fleet of 108 planes across 22 cities in one swoop Saturday 29 October, leaving 68,000 passengers stranded at airports all around the world.
Joyce decided to force a dramatic showdown by grounding Qantas at short notice and locking out staff from the next workday, Monday 31 October.
"It's an unbelievable decision. It's a hard decision. We have no alternative. This is the fastest way to ensure the airline gets back in the air." Joyce blamed the unions for "trashing our strategy and our brand".
This was a day after he asked the Qantas board for a pay hike for himself, from A$3million to A$5million. The board passed his salary-hike and backed his strategy to nuke employees and passengers.
But this plan was never disclosed at the annual general meeting on Friday which preceded his dramatic fleet-grounding announcement of Saturday. Deliberate withholding of such information during the AGM, raises issues of transparency and governance for a publicly listed company.
Interestingly on the Monday trade, Qantas share price rose 5% to A$1.62 indicating investors agreed with the need to flush out the attrition tactics of the unions and move on.
It worked. The government called for an emergency Saturday night sitting of the three-man Fair Work Australia (FWA) panel to decide termination or suspension of industrial action and grounding of the fleet, to push the parties back to the negotiating table.
The FWA panel ordered immediate termination of all strikes and grounding of the fleet. It decreed a 21-day window for the three unions involved and Qantas management to agree terms, failing which the government would intervene to force resolution.
Qantas International in the red A$200million annually
The international operations pile up huge losses but are subsidized by the highly profitable domestic subsidiary Jetstar Airlines and the freight hauling arm.
Therein lies the secret to the Qantas makeover: Jetstar operates with a substantially New Zealand recruited crew paid in NZ currency, following local NZ terms and scales which are significantly less than Australian benchmarks.
It follows the low-cost, low-fare, no-frill formula. It gets passengers from A to B without fuss. It outsources pilots and cabin crew at ex-Australia rates.
In August Alan Joyce had announced that the carrier plans to shed 1,000 jobs. It will establish two new brands, both based in Asia, as budget carriers using foreign crew and pilots. The strategy was to replicate the Jetstar success to gradually replace the loss-making Qantas International.
This unveiling of the new strategy was announced together with a more than doubling of net profits to A$250million for the group.
The unions could see the writing on the wall: jobs would migrate overseas, salary leverage would shrink and the centre-of-gravity of Qantas manning would shift offshore.
So naturally the unions of the aircraft mechanics (ALAEA), baggage handlers (TWU) and pilots (AIPA) challenged the strategy because it fundamentally displaces them.
In furtherance of their self-preservation cause they undertook rolling work disruptions as a negotiating tactic in the hope of winning pay rises and assurances of job security.
Alan Joyce persuaded the Qantas board that there was more in it for the shareholders to go with his scheme. They agreed, backed his fight and upped his reward to make it happen. Is that not the story of capitalism, free markets and globalization?
Political nexus of Labour Government & Unions
The Labour Government was blind-sided by the speed of Alan Joyce's strike. Transport Minister Anthony Albanese was riled by the Qantas grounding decision "made on a Saturday morning with notice to the Government mid-afternoon one day after the AGM."
"This is a startling over-reaction" declared Richard Woodward, Vice-President of the Australian & International Pilots Association (AIPA). "The board should move to sack Mr Joyce immediately. He played out his tough-guy fantasies on the passengers!"
Tony Sheldon, national secretary of the Transport Workers Union (TWU) which represents baggage handlers and ground crew, is standing for leadership of the Labour Party along with six other contenders, at the national party conference 2nd December.
The Gillard Government replaced the Industrial Relations Commission with Fair Work Australia (FWA) after passing The Fair Work Act 2009. Of the eleven Fair Work Commissioners appointed by the Gillard administration, nine are former union officials and two are career bureaucrats.
Amazing contempt for customers. Not the Harvard playbook.
There can be no more self-destructive business decision than victimizing your own customers. Alan Joyce ensured maximum inconvenience to unsuspecting Qantas passengers. They were suddenly left stranded at domestic and international airports without a plan. They were scammed by their own national airline.
That will not be forgotten nor forgiven easily. The brand equity which the world's tenth largest airline built over decades of reliability has been trashed by its own CEO.
Perhaps that was his plan. He is a mathematician by academic training. He may have a calculus of net benefit all worked out. After all people are mere 'factors of production' in the economic equation. What matters is greater profits for the haves.
ENDS
Monday 31 October 2011
Sunday 30 October 2011
Can innovation be managed in corporate frameworks? Mostly not
Creativity, leadership and innovation have entered the lexicon as 'must-have' words in the management manifesto. No chairman's annual report is complete without them peppered into the text. Like "people are our most important asset" was in the 90s.
It is fashionable and trendy for managers to drop these terms at every staff meeting. Every era has its buzzwords for organizations. These are ours at the turn of the 21st Century.
Industry forums, blogs and white papers discuss innovation as process improvements to design, speed, convenience, cost etc. or as derivative advancement of products and services.
What distinguishes true 'innovation' from product & process improvements?
Breakthrough innovation is disruptive. It renders current ways of solving problems obsolete. It redefines the problem and its solution. It creates a new product, service and market that never existed before.
Typically innovation leaves most consumers befuddled about what it is and why it was created. Early adopters explore the myriad ways in which it can be used, almost as a fan club.
The iPhone re-defined the mobile voice communication tool as an entertainment centre for music downloads, videos, broadcast news, social networks and email communication.
It introduced touch-screen navigation of applications. It enabled a platform for developers to generate 'apps' for the Apple Store. Apple built a dynamic eco-system around the iPhone.
Here you can witness a breakthrough device designed to do much more than voice-connect, surrounded by a creative community of apps developers, a high-margin revenue share model and a growing library of games, apps and functionality from one trusted source.
The strict Apple review process eliminates malware and immature submissions. Approval by Apple guarantees quality and integrity to consumers. It frees developers from the burden of marketing their products globally. Users can access a rich store of apps.
Is it any surprise that iPhone users have little reason to switch brands?
Can innovation be 'managed' within a corporate culture of conformity?
A typical enterprise is a hierarchy of managers, committees and approvals processes dedicated to preserving status-quo. Members work their way up the ladder by following orders and avoiding anything which may upset their superiors. They are rewarded for toiling in their groove.
An enterprise is 'efficient' to the extent that it has a high degree of predictability and shared behaviour. Any member of the organization who exhibits a questioning attitude to established procedures is considered a deviant and dangerous.
The system is designed to promote conformity and penalize challengers. In that sense it shares similarity with gangs, cults and religious movements. There is retribution visited on any who question.
That was how management as we know it evolved - from the dawn of the industrial revolution, to ensure factories mass-producing widgets could be efficient, consistent and scalable. It was a command-and-control logic that worked for widgets.
Alas, this is hardly an environment for creativity and innovation to flourish in a post-industrial, always-connected, digital world of information available to all.
Even more bizarre is the idea that innovation can be managed within such a framework! It is comic to see naive CEOs and HR managers add creativity, leadership and innovation to their list of attributes to be rated in performance appraisal forms by managers trained to instinctively shoot all three on sight.
In too many organizations, the annual appraisal process itself is a sick joke stoically implemented despite all evidence to the contrary. None below believe it to achieve anything other than pretend a scientific method to justify biased distribution of bonus, increments and promotions.
It gets so weird that an artificial bell-curve is force-fitted on small units of staff so that exactly 50% fall either side of the central measure.
Normal bell curves occur only where data from sufficiently large populations can be randomly sampled. It is statistically impossible to have a 'normal' curve represent selective and small populations.
This statistical distortion is a classic stupidity implemented by otherwise intelligent managers.
If anything, a competent sub-population of managers should show a positively skewed distribution or the enterprise is in deep pooh!
The appraisal process is like a cult ritual at the alter of some deity. The terrified victims fall on their knees and pray for deliverance. The appraisal forms are carried about reverently by HR priests and preserved like the Buddha's Tooth in Sri Lanka.
Worse than the pointlessness of it all is the thousands of hours wasted by managers across the organization twice a year (yes a mid-term appraisal is mandatory).
How does a rigid hierarchy of conformists embrace the disruptive nature of innovation? Those being appraised know that any hint of innovation that may threaten the existing business model will be beaten down severely and the culprit marked down, if not expelled.
In the absence of real leadership, empowerment and creative challenge to innovate, business chiefs eagerly embrace the dead appraisal forms as proof of being "with-it". Nothing can be further from the truth.
Management consulting witchdoctors have sold expensive performance-appraisal forms and statistical methodology at huge profit to simpleton CEOs looking for quick fixes to motivation and productivity.
Companies trapped in this self-delusion lack confident leaders and inspirational example from the top. It is futile to expect innovation to stand a chance in such mediocre outfits.
An appraisal system is no substitute for inspiring leadership that provides clear direction and gets the best out of staff at all levels.
It is not the panacea for absent leadership that management consultancies sell.
How does 3M, Proctor & Gamble, Google continue to stream innovative products?
These organizations live on innovation and do not fear making their own market leading products obsolete by design.
They have existing operations running at full speed and a parallel R&D investment, separate from the operating business, whose mandate is to breakthrough and disrupt.
The operating business has no overriding power to inhibit the R&D labs. They have a well-honed methodology to operationalize breakthroughs after field testing validates commercial viability.
They employ smart R&D talent to take on any area of the existing business and disrupt it with superior solutions or invent entirely new benefits. They co-exist distinctly apart from the mainstream.
The R&D labs are supported with the latest tools and ample budgets. They are expected to invent and secure patents. They define tomorrow. They have no interest in yesterday.
It is wrong to think that these examples indicate disruptive innovation to be the sole preserve of men in white coats.
Similar breakthroughs occur in all fields and functions. It is about problem-solving ideas that explode in all directions without inhibition, like an energetic mind-map.
It needs leadership willing to accept fresh thinking. It champions managers everywhere to find new ways to solve persistent problems and initiate new functionalities not previously seen. It requires genuine openness to off-the-wall perspectives.
Innovation in any organization waits for the CEO with a cool attitude to challenging existing business models ahead of the curve. It sharply separates leaders from managers.
Perhaps organizations should pair a CEO (leader) and COO (manager) for complimentary value.
And shred dysfunctional "performance-appraisal" tools which de-motivate talent and freeze creativity. The tragi-comedy of this is that weak CEOs have no guts to dismantle the failed exercise!
ENDS
It is fashionable and trendy for managers to drop these terms at every staff meeting. Every era has its buzzwords for organizations. These are ours at the turn of the 21st Century.
Industry forums, blogs and white papers discuss innovation as process improvements to design, speed, convenience, cost etc. or as derivative advancement of products and services.
What distinguishes true 'innovation' from product & process improvements?
Breakthrough innovation is disruptive. It renders current ways of solving problems obsolete. It redefines the problem and its solution. It creates a new product, service and market that never existed before.
Typically innovation leaves most consumers befuddled about what it is and why it was created. Early adopters explore the myriad ways in which it can be used, almost as a fan club.
The iPhone re-defined the mobile voice communication tool as an entertainment centre for music downloads, videos, broadcast news, social networks and email communication.
It introduced touch-screen navigation of applications. It enabled a platform for developers to generate 'apps' for the Apple Store. Apple built a dynamic eco-system around the iPhone.
Here you can witness a breakthrough device designed to do much more than voice-connect, surrounded by a creative community of apps developers, a high-margin revenue share model and a growing library of games, apps and functionality from one trusted source.
The strict Apple review process eliminates malware and immature submissions. Approval by Apple guarantees quality and integrity to consumers. It frees developers from the burden of marketing their products globally. Users can access a rich store of apps.
Is it any surprise that iPhone users have little reason to switch brands?
Can innovation be 'managed' within a corporate culture of conformity?
A typical enterprise is a hierarchy of managers, committees and approvals processes dedicated to preserving status-quo. Members work their way up the ladder by following orders and avoiding anything which may upset their superiors. They are rewarded for toiling in their groove.
An enterprise is 'efficient' to the extent that it has a high degree of predictability and shared behaviour. Any member of the organization who exhibits a questioning attitude to established procedures is considered a deviant and dangerous.
The system is designed to promote conformity and penalize challengers. In that sense it shares similarity with gangs, cults and religious movements. There is retribution visited on any who question.
That was how management as we know it evolved - from the dawn of the industrial revolution, to ensure factories mass-producing widgets could be efficient, consistent and scalable. It was a command-and-control logic that worked for widgets.
Alas, this is hardly an environment for creativity and innovation to flourish in a post-industrial, always-connected, digital world of information available to all.
Even more bizarre is the idea that innovation can be managed within such a framework! It is comic to see naive CEOs and HR managers add creativity, leadership and innovation to their list of attributes to be rated in performance appraisal forms by managers trained to instinctively shoot all three on sight.
In too many organizations, the annual appraisal process itself is a sick joke stoically implemented despite all evidence to the contrary. None below believe it to achieve anything other than pretend a scientific method to justify biased distribution of bonus, increments and promotions.
It gets so weird that an artificial bell-curve is force-fitted on small units of staff so that exactly 50% fall either side of the central measure.
Normal bell curves occur only where data from sufficiently large populations can be randomly sampled. It is statistically impossible to have a 'normal' curve represent selective and small populations.
This statistical distortion is a classic stupidity implemented by otherwise intelligent managers.
If anything, a competent sub-population of managers should show a positively skewed distribution or the enterprise is in deep pooh!
The appraisal process is like a cult ritual at the alter of some deity. The terrified victims fall on their knees and pray for deliverance. The appraisal forms are carried about reverently by HR priests and preserved like the Buddha's Tooth in Sri Lanka.
Worse than the pointlessness of it all is the thousands of hours wasted by managers across the organization twice a year (yes a mid-term appraisal is mandatory).
How does a rigid hierarchy of conformists embrace the disruptive nature of innovation? Those being appraised know that any hint of innovation that may threaten the existing business model will be beaten down severely and the culprit marked down, if not expelled.
In the absence of real leadership, empowerment and creative challenge to innovate, business chiefs eagerly embrace the dead appraisal forms as proof of being "with-it". Nothing can be further from the truth.
Management consulting witchdoctors have sold expensive performance-appraisal forms and statistical methodology at huge profit to simpleton CEOs looking for quick fixes to motivation and productivity.
Companies trapped in this self-delusion lack confident leaders and inspirational example from the top. It is futile to expect innovation to stand a chance in such mediocre outfits.
An appraisal system is no substitute for inspiring leadership that provides clear direction and gets the best out of staff at all levels.
It is not the panacea for absent leadership that management consultancies sell.
How does 3M, Proctor & Gamble, Google continue to stream innovative products?
These organizations live on innovation and do not fear making their own market leading products obsolete by design.
They have existing operations running at full speed and a parallel R&D investment, separate from the operating business, whose mandate is to breakthrough and disrupt.
The operating business has no overriding power to inhibit the R&D labs. They have a well-honed methodology to operationalize breakthroughs after field testing validates commercial viability.
They employ smart R&D talent to take on any area of the existing business and disrupt it with superior solutions or invent entirely new benefits. They co-exist distinctly apart from the mainstream.
The R&D labs are supported with the latest tools and ample budgets. They are expected to invent and secure patents. They define tomorrow. They have no interest in yesterday.
It is wrong to think that these examples indicate disruptive innovation to be the sole preserve of men in white coats.
Similar breakthroughs occur in all fields and functions. It is about problem-solving ideas that explode in all directions without inhibition, like an energetic mind-map.
It needs leadership willing to accept fresh thinking. It champions managers everywhere to find new ways to solve persistent problems and initiate new functionalities not previously seen. It requires genuine openness to off-the-wall perspectives.
Innovation in any organization waits for the CEO with a cool attitude to challenging existing business models ahead of the curve. It sharply separates leaders from managers.
Perhaps organizations should pair a CEO (leader) and COO (manager) for complimentary value.
And shred dysfunctional "performance-appraisal" tools which de-motivate talent and freeze creativity. The tragi-comedy of this is that weak CEOs have no guts to dismantle the failed exercise!
ENDS
Thursday 27 October 2011
Sniping at anti-corruption crusaders will not save Congress Party
A sustained campaign of sniping at the leaders of the anti-corruption movement by senior members of the Congress Party, speaks of policy confusion and lack of leadership. What is it designed to achieve?
Two members of Anna Hazare's campaign team were found to be guilty of fiddling expenses (Kiran Bedi) and diverting donations (Arvind Kejriwal). That gave the Congress Party opportunity to ridicule the anti-corruption campaigners.
Civil rights lawyer Prashant Bhushan, another key member, suggested that the people of Kashmir should decide whether they wished to stay in India, be independent or switch to Pakistan. That is a 'sacred-cow' issue with most Indians. He was assaulted in his office by thugs believed to be members of an extreme Hindu fundamentalist organization.
Team Anna are on the back-foot and divided. That does not absolve the Congress Party of corruption in government. A corrupt government smearing anti-corruption campaigners does not win sympathy from a public fed-up with civil servants and politicians who abuse their positions.
The weak Manmohan Singh, out-manoeuvred by powerful political warlords, signals administrative dysfunction to voters.
There is no one in the driver's seat. This is a lame-duck government which will be turfed out at the next general election.
Corruption works for everyone except the dispossessed
The victims of India's systemic corruption are the powerless masses who can't get relief from policemen, government clerks or elected representatives.
The middle classes are annoyed that they have to grease palms at every turn. The rich leverage it to bend the system to their benefit.
State legislators and parliamentarians see it as their ticket to amassing wealth by exerting influence on government contracts. Corruption works for everyone except the dispossessed.
What incentive for Parliament to pass Jan Lokpal Bill?
None. About 25% of sitting parliamentarians are convicted of crimes or pending charges. A larger proportion manage to pilfer without legal trace. More than US$1.4 trillion of India's 'black money' is stashed in Swiss Banks. Up to 40% of India's GDP is estimated to disappear from the economy into the pockets of civil servants, politicians and colluding businessmen.
The last thing India's political class wants is public scrutiny of its methods of enrichment from public finances.
Thanks to the Right to Information Act (RTI) which was forced on the government in 2005 by an earlier public campaign, activists can request sight of documents, memos and contracts which were previously inaccessible. That data can be quickly distributed through social networks to name and shame the guilty. The politicians deeply regret passing the RTI Act.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh recently floated a trial balloon saying the RTI needs to be reviewed as it inhibits civil servants from appending notes and comments to proposed Bills and projects. It slows down the normal functioning of government. That brought a torrent of protest from social activists, amply magnified through TV talk shows and press commentary.
Taking lessons from the effect of the RTI Act, the political class has no incentive to rush passage of the Jan Lokpal Bill lobbied by activist Anna Hazare. It is a severe tool designed to rid India of its Neta-Babu (politician-bureaucrat) nexus through swift justice meted out by a citizen's Ombudsman and his avenging angels.
It gives corrupt judges, ministers, civil servants and legislators little legal privilege. It is punitive and extreme to a political class used to distorting legal process to escape responsibility.
Hazare warns Congress Party of election risk
Anna Hazare has warned that if a strong Jan Lokpal Bill is not passed into law by the Winter session of parliament, he will tour all the states where by-elections are due and re-ignite public anger against Congress Party candidates. That is no idle threat.
The public fury that was triggered across the nation by Anna Hazare's fast in August has not gone away. India's voters are restive. And the game has gone well past the stage for the government to invoke security as a cover to lock him up.
Congress Party strategists are toying with parliamentary process and legal punditry to water down the Lokpal Bill and starve budget allocations for the ambitious central and state anti-corruption machinery.
By a clever combination of toothless legislation and budgetary under-provision, politicians of all parties hope to escape dismissal, seizure of assets and jail.
What is the point of getting elected if you cannot leverage your position to become a millionaire?
ENDS
 |
| Kejrival, Anna Hazare, Kiran Bedi & Swami Agnivesh Who will guard the guards? |
Two members of Anna Hazare's campaign team were found to be guilty of fiddling expenses (Kiran Bedi) and diverting donations (Arvind Kejriwal). That gave the Congress Party opportunity to ridicule the anti-corruption campaigners.
Team Anna are on the back-foot and divided. That does not absolve the Congress Party of corruption in government. A corrupt government smearing anti-corruption campaigners does not win sympathy from a public fed-up with civil servants and politicians who abuse their positions.
 |
| Bhushan attacked by goons |
 |
| My hands are clean |
There is no one in the driver's seat. This is a lame-duck government which will be turfed out at the next general election.
Corruption works for everyone except the dispossessed
The victims of India's systemic corruption are the powerless masses who can't get relief from policemen, government clerks or elected representatives.
The middle classes are annoyed that they have to grease palms at every turn. The rich leverage it to bend the system to their benefit.
State legislators and parliamentarians see it as their ticket to amassing wealth by exerting influence on government contracts. Corruption works for everyone except the dispossessed.
What incentive for Parliament to pass Jan Lokpal Bill?
None. About 25% of sitting parliamentarians are convicted of crimes or pending charges. A larger proportion manage to pilfer without legal trace. More than US$1.4 trillion of India's 'black money' is stashed in Swiss Banks. Up to 40% of India's GDP is estimated to disappear from the economy into the pockets of civil servants, politicians and colluding businessmen.
The last thing India's political class wants is public scrutiny of its methods of enrichment from public finances.
Thanks to the Right to Information Act (RTI) which was forced on the government in 2005 by an earlier public campaign, activists can request sight of documents, memos and contracts which were previously inaccessible. That data can be quickly distributed through social networks to name and shame the guilty. The politicians deeply regret passing the RTI Act.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh recently floated a trial balloon saying the RTI needs to be reviewed as it inhibits civil servants from appending notes and comments to proposed Bills and projects. It slows down the normal functioning of government. That brought a torrent of protest from social activists, amply magnified through TV talk shows and press commentary.
Taking lessons from the effect of the RTI Act, the political class has no incentive to rush passage of the Jan Lokpal Bill lobbied by activist Anna Hazare. It is a severe tool designed to rid India of its Neta-Babu (politician-bureaucrat) nexus through swift justice meted out by a citizen's Ombudsman and his avenging angels.
It gives corrupt judges, ministers, civil servants and legislators little legal privilege. It is punitive and extreme to a political class used to distorting legal process to escape responsibility.
Hazare warns Congress Party of election risk
Anna Hazare has warned that if a strong Jan Lokpal Bill is not passed into law by the Winter session of parliament, he will tour all the states where by-elections are due and re-ignite public anger against Congress Party candidates. That is no idle threat.
The public fury that was triggered across the nation by Anna Hazare's fast in August has not gone away. India's voters are restive. And the game has gone well past the stage for the government to invoke security as a cover to lock him up.
Congress Party strategists are toying with parliamentary process and legal punditry to water down the Lokpal Bill and starve budget allocations for the ambitious central and state anti-corruption machinery.
By a clever combination of toothless legislation and budgetary under-provision, politicians of all parties hope to escape dismissal, seizure of assets and jail.
What is the point of getting elected if you cannot leverage your position to become a millionaire?
ENDS
Monday 17 October 2011
Will India's US$35 'Tablet for the Poor' bridge the Digital Divide?
The Minister for Communication & Information Technology, Kapil Sibal, announced with much pomp on 5th October, the breakthrough pricing of a tablet computer at US$35 for "millions of India's schoolchildren" to become digitally connected and benefit from online education. Kapil Sibal, also the Human Resources Development Minister, scored on both counts politically for national and international media coverage.
The earlier 'US$100 laptop' computer ambition failed to materialize.
The 'AAKASH', manufactured in Hyderabad, is a 7-inch tablet with 800 x 480 resolution, running the Android 2.2 operating system. It comes with 256Mb of RAM, a 32Gb expandable memory slot and two USB ports. It will be pre-loaded with internet browsers, PDF reader, video conferencing, media player, open office, microphone, stereo headset and multimedia content viewer. The project is aimed at 25,000 colleges and 400 universities.
The government-procured version incurs no duty and is subsidized. It will have no inbuilt cellular modem or SIM card for GSM through Telcos. The commercial version which will have both and pay all taxes, will retail at US$60.
Like the other famous Indian attempt at poor-pricing, the Nano car from TATA touted as the "car for the masses" at US$2,000 per unit, the tablet to enable the rural poor to join the ranks of the digitally connected looks destined for a reality-crash.
The Nano had an alarming tendency to burst into flames. It also carried the stigma of being labelled 'cheap' and targeted at the 'have-nots', which steered the middle classes away from acquiring a Nano. The brand positioning tainted its appeal and the spontaneous combustion of early Nanos sealed its fate.
Replacement not repair
Perhaps to avoid the negative publicity which attended the Nano car, the government insisted on a 1-year replacement warranty from Datawind, the supplier which met its tender specifications of design and price.
The logistics, disruption and delays involved in looping faulty tablets through repair and return cycles could potentially turn a political triumph into yet another Third World over-reach. The government thought it wiser to pre-empt that experience by prompt replacement.
Suneet Singh Tuli, CEO of Datawind says that the one-year replacement warranty adds US$14 to its basic price of US$35, making it US$49 to students and teachers. The government has placed an initial order of 100,000 units and has pledged it will deliver a million units this year to students. The government will subsidize 50% of cost and participating educational institutions the balance.
'Resistive' not 'Capacitive' touch screen
The Aakash unfortunately will quickly disappoint users with its choice of resistive screen technology. It will not be readable in bright sunlight, reflect glare, needs finger pressure to activate - leading to response loss with prolonged usage and is easily scratched or damaged.
Addressing the Digital Divide? Hardly.
Activists in rural poverty alleviation and NGO projects are unimpressed. They see the unsolved disconnects of basic lack of power, clean water, teachers and a failed primary schooling system as the issues which continue to block the dispossessed from information and knowledge.
Sunny Ghosh, CEO of Wolf Frameworks, a successful digital entrepreneur in Bangalore, dismisses the Aakash initiative as political hype. "Beyond the 50-100 mile radius of the urban centres, there is no basic power availability to households. If there is no electricity, what is the point of having a tablet device? If there is no GSM connectivity either, that truly defeats the intent of bridging the digital divide! Policies like this one will only further widen the gap between the digital haves and have-nots."
Sunny further sees the low literacy rates in rural communities being bridged by audio-visual content distribution so the poor can absorb the information or knowledge without having to struggle with inability to read or write. That will require even more powerful computer power to make audio-visual communication effective. Stripped-down devices like the Aakash limit the opportunity to bridge the literacy gap.
Rural literacy, Small business & Village councils all beyond the reach of Tablets
Osama Manzar, founder and director of the Digital Empowerment Foundation in New Delhi who is on the Working Group for Internet Governance at the Ministry of Communication & Information Technology identifies the woeful state of the nation's primary schooling system as a fundamental problem of absentee teachers and missing students.
72% of primary schools have only 3 or less teachers. 25% of teachers are absent from classes. Of those present only half engage in teaching. These appalling statistics were gleaned from random field visits across a representative sample of schools in rural communities. India also has a critically low ratio of teachers - only 456 teachers per million of population.
Osama notes that 70% of micro, small and medium enterprises have no digital connection and thus no possibility to benefit from efficiencies or opportunities that connectivity can facilitate.
His own digital platform for the 3.3 million NGOs registered in India is handicapped by 70% of them lacking digital infrastructure and connectivity to even support a website!
Of the 250,000 panchayats (village councils) across the country, only 50,000 are equipped with computers, mostly in disuse due to digital clueless-ness and/or lack of connectivity.
While he despairs of the sorry state of infrastructure and the dysfunctional primary schooling system, Osama feels that the affordable tablet should be distributed to teachers and school managements to monitor the proper functioning of teachers and attendance of students. Until the basic system functions, the distribution of cheap tablets will achieve little.
Osama is convinced that the full exploitation of the available connectivity for students will be through the acceleration of education content apps and facilitation of such content investment by the authorities.
"How will the US$35 tablet solve any of these problems?" is Osama Manzar's parting question.
ENDS
CP/17-10-11
The earlier 'US$100 laptop' computer ambition failed to materialize.
The 'AAKASH', manufactured in Hyderabad, is a 7-inch tablet with 800 x 480 resolution, running the Android 2.2 operating system. It comes with 256Mb of RAM, a 32Gb expandable memory slot and two USB ports. It will be pre-loaded with internet browsers, PDF reader, video conferencing, media player, open office, microphone, stereo headset and multimedia content viewer. The project is aimed at 25,000 colleges and 400 universities.
The government-procured version incurs no duty and is subsidized. It will have no inbuilt cellular modem or SIM card for GSM through Telcos. The commercial version which will have both and pay all taxes, will retail at US$60.
Like the other famous Indian attempt at poor-pricing, the Nano car from TATA touted as the "car for the masses" at US$2,000 per unit, the tablet to enable the rural poor to join the ranks of the digitally connected looks destined for a reality-crash.
The Nano had an alarming tendency to burst into flames. It also carried the stigma of being labelled 'cheap' and targeted at the 'have-nots', which steered the middle classes away from acquiring a Nano. The brand positioning tainted its appeal and the spontaneous combustion of early Nanos sealed its fate.
Replacement not repair
Perhaps to avoid the negative publicity which attended the Nano car, the government insisted on a 1-year replacement warranty from Datawind, the supplier which met its tender specifications of design and price.
The logistics, disruption and delays involved in looping faulty tablets through repair and return cycles could potentially turn a political triumph into yet another Third World over-reach. The government thought it wiser to pre-empt that experience by prompt replacement.
Suneet Singh Tuli, CEO of Datawind says that the one-year replacement warranty adds US$14 to its basic price of US$35, making it US$49 to students and teachers. The government has placed an initial order of 100,000 units and has pledged it will deliver a million units this year to students. The government will subsidize 50% of cost and participating educational institutions the balance.
'Resistive' not 'Capacitive' touch screen
The Aakash unfortunately will quickly disappoint users with its choice of resistive screen technology. It will not be readable in bright sunlight, reflect glare, needs finger pressure to activate - leading to response loss with prolonged usage and is easily scratched or damaged.
Addressing the Digital Divide? Hardly.
Activists in rural poverty alleviation and NGO projects are unimpressed. They see the unsolved disconnects of basic lack of power, clean water, teachers and a failed primary schooling system as the issues which continue to block the dispossessed from information and knowledge.
Sunny Ghosh, CEO of Wolf Frameworks, a successful digital entrepreneur in Bangalore, dismisses the Aakash initiative as political hype. "Beyond the 50-100 mile radius of the urban centres, there is no basic power availability to households. If there is no electricity, what is the point of having a tablet device? If there is no GSM connectivity either, that truly defeats the intent of bridging the digital divide! Policies like this one will only further widen the gap between the digital haves and have-nots."
Sunny further sees the low literacy rates in rural communities being bridged by audio-visual content distribution so the poor can absorb the information or knowledge without having to struggle with inability to read or write. That will require even more powerful computer power to make audio-visual communication effective. Stripped-down devices like the Aakash limit the opportunity to bridge the literacy gap.
Rural literacy, Small business & Village councils all beyond the reach of Tablets
Osama Manzar, founder and director of the Digital Empowerment Foundation in New Delhi who is on the Working Group for Internet Governance at the Ministry of Communication & Information Technology identifies the woeful state of the nation's primary schooling system as a fundamental problem of absentee teachers and missing students.
72% of primary schools have only 3 or less teachers. 25% of teachers are absent from classes. Of those present only half engage in teaching. These appalling statistics were gleaned from random field visits across a representative sample of schools in rural communities. India also has a critically low ratio of teachers - only 456 teachers per million of population.
Osama notes that 70% of micro, small and medium enterprises have no digital connection and thus no possibility to benefit from efficiencies or opportunities that connectivity can facilitate.
His own digital platform for the 3.3 million NGOs registered in India is handicapped by 70% of them lacking digital infrastructure and connectivity to even support a website!
Of the 250,000 panchayats (village councils) across the country, only 50,000 are equipped with computers, mostly in disuse due to digital clueless-ness and/or lack of connectivity.
While he despairs of the sorry state of infrastructure and the dysfunctional primary schooling system, Osama feels that the affordable tablet should be distributed to teachers and school managements to monitor the proper functioning of teachers and attendance of students. Until the basic system functions, the distribution of cheap tablets will achieve little.
Osama is convinced that the full exploitation of the available connectivity for students will be through the acceleration of education content apps and facilitation of such content investment by the authorities.
"How will the US$35 tablet solve any of these problems?" is Osama Manzar's parting question.
ENDS
CP/17-10-11
Sunday 2 October 2011
Bland and Earnest vie for Beijing's nod as next leader of Hong Kong
'Small-circle' Committee to pick Henry or CY Leung
Hong Kong will be given its third Chief Executive since the handover in 1997 of the British territory to the People's Republic of China. It could be Bland (Henry Tang) or Earnest (CY Leung) in March 2012. The new CE's term will commence 1st July 2012.
The right to choose the next Chief Executive is confined to a 1,200 college of electors which will be in place by December 2011. They represent 0.01 of HK's population.
Each 'constituency' of this electorate is assigned a fixed number of block votes. Any candidate wishing to be considered for CE has to collect a minimum of 100 nominations.
It is a rubber-stamp assembly to legitimize Beijing's nominee, very much in the mould of politics on the mainland. The 1,200 electors strain keenly for smoke signals from Beijing on whom to vote for. They would rather not back the wrong horse.
The 'small-circle' Election Committee consisted originally of 800 members. In June 2010 legislators voted to increase its size to 1,200 members. This was a concession by Beijing to soften the public ridicule of the process for the most important job in Hong Kong.
Some members of the pro-democracy camp supported this 'reform' on the understanding that it will be totally abolished by 2017. They want the next CE to be elected by universal suffrage.
No one is sure if the Election Committee will be disbanded next round as there are mixed signals from the administration and silence from Beijing.
Beijing has been at pains even before 1997 to assure Hong Kong's businessmen that no change will be made to its pro-business policies.
The 1,200 member CE election committee aggregates chambers of commerce, New Territories villagers, professional bodies, pro-Beijing organizations (NPC deputies, CPPCC members) and other narrow-interest groups.
Many are known in HK as 'rotten boroughs' created for the purpose of stacking the deck. They have limited self-interest agendas and are easily shown whom to vote for.
A situation of two CE candidates, both approved by Beijing, is a new one. This will really tax the electors.
Beijing may eventually wish to harness both in some form, while it gauges both the small-circle and public support for the candidates.
HK citizens locked out of choosing their leader
Hong Kong's 7 million residents are out of the loop. They have to watch in bewilderment as this 'Theater of the Absurd' plays out over the next nine months. In a free election, it is unlikely that either candidate would have a chance of being elected.
The first chief executive, the hapless Tung Chee-hwa had his second term curtailed for failing to push through the infamous Article 23 Security Bill.
About 500-700,000 Hongkongers from all walks of life poured out on 1st July, 2003 to march peacefully against the Bill. Tung was shell-shocked and his masters in Beijing even more so. It caught all the expert advisers off-guard.
The outpouring of mass disapproval against this attempt to curb Hong Kong's freedoms of assembly and press, was deeply felt and profound.
ATV, HK's second TV station, has been acquired by mainland owners. Recently the head of RTHK, the public service broadcaster was replaced by a civil servant with no journalism or broadcast experience. Students at HKU were roughed-up by police with plain-clothes mainland security personnel present during the visit of a high mainland official.
All these add up to genuine disquiet about the freedoms that Hong Kong residents take for granted.
Hong Kong citizens are additionally facing unaffordable housing, rising inflation, confusion about Cantonese versus English-medium schooling, the depreciating currency (it is pegged to the US Dollar) and policy-paralysis in government.
They despair over the administration's seeming unwillingness to use its massive foreign reserves and healthy fiscal surplus to address systemic, long-term social problems.
The administration is pushing to spend billions on a joint bridge infrastructure project with Guangdong Province and to add a third runway to HK international airport, amidst expert misgivings about the need for or commercial viability of these schemes.
This lopsided prioritization reinforces the long-held suspicion among HK residents of collusion between property developers and bureaucrats, to the detriment of ordinary people.
Hong Kong is a city suffering from prolonged absence of political leadership and a coherent programme. People are weary, impatient and losing faith fast.
Henry Tang (Bland) waits to be appointed CE
Henry Tang Ying-yen is a classic silver-spoon scion of a textile tycoon. His father, Tang Hsiang Chien escaped to Hong Kong from China in 1950 in the aftermath of the 1949 victory of Mao's communist forces and made his fortune as a textile trader.
HC Tang was subsequently nominated to the standing committee of the Chinese People's Politicial Consultative Conference (CPPCC) which is the advisory body to the nation's legislature, the National People's Congress (NPC).
The CPPCC was mooted in 1945 to align the Communist Party and the nationalist KMT to a common agenda. When the communists won decisively in 1949, the KMT fled to Taiwan to proclaim the Republic of China (ROC).
The CPPCC then continued as a nominal advisory body which assembles in Beijing every five years in parallel with the NPC. The NPC approves government budgets and policies.
Henry's 'red' family credentials are well established. The Beijing leadership has been grooming Henry steadily through the senior ranks for ten years. He was initiated into the Tung Chee-hwa administration in July 2002 as Secretary for Commerce, Industry & Technology.
Henry replaced Antony Leung as Finance Secretary in August 2003 when Leung had to resign for purchasing a Mercedes days before he himself announced a Budget tax increase on cars.
When Donald Tsang was confirmed as CE in 2005 (after acting as CE from July 2003 when CH Tung resigned), Rafael Hui replaced him as Chief Secretary. Henry Tang moved into the Chief Secretary's position in 2007 when Rafael Hui retired.
Henry is best known for his impressive cellar of premium Bordeaux and Burgundy wines. His outstanding contribution as financial secretary was to remove the tax on wine. That won him the gratitude of wine consumers, merchants and importers.
The wine tax abolished in 2008 catapulted Hong Kong beyond London and New York to become the premier wine auction capital of the world. In 2007 the value of wine imported into HK was US$185 million. In 2010 wine import soared to US$858 million - much of that destined for the mainland.
As with Art Auctions, it is the gush of mainland cash driving the wine auction market. Cynics label this as money laundering with prestige attached.
Given his privileged upbringing, love of fine wine and the lifestyle it connotes, Henry is an affable sort who never needed to cloak-and-dagger his way to the top.
He treats his associates and subordinates with courtesy and has an easy, relaxed style. The civil service is very comfortable with Henry Tang. He is very much hands-off and let's the bureaucrats get on with their duties without harassment.
Awkward in public and unable to coherently address unscripted Q&A, Henry comes across as not having his fingers on the pulse of the society he may be called to lead.
Business tycoons are most comfortable with him.
CY Leung (Earnest) wants the job, has an agenda
The civil service is wary and nervous of CY Leung. He is the kind of driven boss they dread. Life will not be comfortable for clock-watchers and time-servers under a CY Leung regime.
Unlike Henry, Leung Chun-ying is the son of a policeman. He obtained a diploma in surveying at HK Poly, then went on to Bristol Poly to complete a BA in Real Estate Management.
When he returned to HK, he joined Jones Lang Wooton in 1977. Within 5 years Leung was chairman of its HK Branch, reportedly earning HK$10million. He was admired in local circles as the "Emperor of the Working Class".
His colleagues and associates in the real estate business acknowledge his skills, knowledge, leadership and organizational abilities.
He was a former chairman of the HK branch of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors and president of the HK Institute of Surveyors. He has chaired the councils of Lingnan and City Universities.
He served as advisor on land reform to Shenzen, Tianjin and Shanghai municipalities. He is international economic advisor for Hebei province.
It was CY Leung's credentials as a very competent real estate strategist, leader and organizer, which propelled him into the sights of the Communist Party looking for talent in Hong Kong.
He has been the 'Convenor' of the Unofficial members of the Executive Council (the CE's cabinet) till he resigned in September to stand for CE. Donald Tsang has retained him to help shape his final Policy Address.
CY is best remembered for supporting CH Tung in his 1997 plan to build 85,000 new flats to increase affordable housing stock so that at least 70% of HK residents would be able to afford homes over 10 years. The Home Ownership Scheme (HOS) planned to sell public housing to means-qualified residents at 30-40% below market prices.
In 2003 the HOS scheme was mothballed by the HK government. Private developers are not supportive of an increased stock of public housing. They are not interested in 70% of the population (nearly 5 million) having access to flats below market prices.
Two candidates. One almost disinterested.
CY Leung is actively meeting community groups across Hong Kong. He seems to have an appreciation for the plight of the under-class and the widening rich-poor gap. Ordinary people can relate to him. He reaches out. He listens. He takes notes.
Henry is taking the position of an heir waiting to be crowned. He is not going down to interact with society, declare his agenda, solicit support or do any more than wait to be confirmed by Beijing.
CY Leung is the outsider who must generate a wave of popular hope. He badly wants to become the next CE and claims to have an agenda to get HK moving again.
Given the last 15 years of coasting, HK needs bold measures to re-ignite its dynamism. It must deploy its wealth sensibly to make life bearable for the poor and sandwich classes.
Between the two candidates, CY Leung deserves to be given a chance to show what he can do for Hong Kong.
However, given Beijing's ear for the business lobby and paranoic fear of 'instability', it may opt for the status-quo. The minders are sure of Henry. They are not too sure of CY. He thinks too deeply and hath a mean and hungry look.
ENDS
 |
| CY Leung is a man with a plan |
 |
| Henry waits to be crowned |
The right to choose the next Chief Executive is confined to a 1,200 college of electors which will be in place by December 2011. They represent 0.01 of HK's population.
Each 'constituency' of this electorate is assigned a fixed number of block votes. Any candidate wishing to be considered for CE has to collect a minimum of 100 nominations.
It is a rubber-stamp assembly to legitimize Beijing's nominee, very much in the mould of politics on the mainland. The 1,200 electors strain keenly for smoke signals from Beijing on whom to vote for. They would rather not back the wrong horse.
The 'small-circle' Election Committee consisted originally of 800 members. In June 2010 legislators voted to increase its size to 1,200 members. This was a concession by Beijing to soften the public ridicule of the process for the most important job in Hong Kong.
Some members of the pro-democracy camp supported this 'reform' on the understanding that it will be totally abolished by 2017. They want the next CE to be elected by universal suffrage.
No one is sure if the Election Committee will be disbanded next round as there are mixed signals from the administration and silence from Beijing.
Beijing has been at pains even before 1997 to assure Hong Kong's businessmen that no change will be made to its pro-business policies.
The 1,200 member CE election committee aggregates chambers of commerce, New Territories villagers, professional bodies, pro-Beijing organizations (NPC deputies, CPPCC members) and other narrow-interest groups.
Many are known in HK as 'rotten boroughs' created for the purpose of stacking the deck. They have limited self-interest agendas and are easily shown whom to vote for.
A situation of two CE candidates, both approved by Beijing, is a new one. This will really tax the electors.
Beijing may eventually wish to harness both in some form, while it gauges both the small-circle and public support for the candidates.
HK citizens locked out of choosing their leader
Hong Kong's 7 million residents are out of the loop. They have to watch in bewilderment as this 'Theater of the Absurd' plays out over the next nine months. In a free election, it is unlikely that either candidate would have a chance of being elected.
The first chief executive, the hapless Tung Chee-hwa had his second term curtailed for failing to push through the infamous Article 23 Security Bill.
About 500-700,000 Hongkongers from all walks of life poured out on 1st July, 2003 to march peacefully against the Bill. Tung was shell-shocked and his masters in Beijing even more so. It caught all the expert advisers off-guard.
The outpouring of mass disapproval against this attempt to curb Hong Kong's freedoms of assembly and press, was deeply felt and profound.
ATV, HK's second TV station, has been acquired by mainland owners. Recently the head of RTHK, the public service broadcaster was replaced by a civil servant with no journalism or broadcast experience. Students at HKU were roughed-up by police with plain-clothes mainland security personnel present during the visit of a high mainland official.
All these add up to genuine disquiet about the freedoms that Hong Kong residents take for granted.
Hong Kong citizens are additionally facing unaffordable housing, rising inflation, confusion about Cantonese versus English-medium schooling, the depreciating currency (it is pegged to the US Dollar) and policy-paralysis in government.
They despair over the administration's seeming unwillingness to use its massive foreign reserves and healthy fiscal surplus to address systemic, long-term social problems.
The administration is pushing to spend billions on a joint bridge infrastructure project with Guangdong Province and to add a third runway to HK international airport, amidst expert misgivings about the need for or commercial viability of these schemes.
This lopsided prioritization reinforces the long-held suspicion among HK residents of collusion between property developers and bureaucrats, to the detriment of ordinary people.
Hong Kong is a city suffering from prolonged absence of political leadership and a coherent programme. People are weary, impatient and losing faith fast.
Henry Tang (Bland) waits to be appointed CE
Henry Tang Ying-yen is a classic silver-spoon scion of a textile tycoon. His father, Tang Hsiang Chien escaped to Hong Kong from China in 1950 in the aftermath of the 1949 victory of Mao's communist forces and made his fortune as a textile trader.
HC Tang was subsequently nominated to the standing committee of the Chinese People's Politicial Consultative Conference (CPPCC) which is the advisory body to the nation's legislature, the National People's Congress (NPC).
The CPPCC was mooted in 1945 to align the Communist Party and the nationalist KMT to a common agenda. When the communists won decisively in 1949, the KMT fled to Taiwan to proclaim the Republic of China (ROC).
The CPPCC then continued as a nominal advisory body which assembles in Beijing every five years in parallel with the NPC. The NPC approves government budgets and policies.
Henry's 'red' family credentials are well established. The Beijing leadership has been grooming Henry steadily through the senior ranks for ten years. He was initiated into the Tung Chee-hwa administration in July 2002 as Secretary for Commerce, Industry & Technology.
Henry replaced Antony Leung as Finance Secretary in August 2003 when Leung had to resign for purchasing a Mercedes days before he himself announced a Budget tax increase on cars.
When Donald Tsang was confirmed as CE in 2005 (after acting as CE from July 2003 when CH Tung resigned), Rafael Hui replaced him as Chief Secretary. Henry Tang moved into the Chief Secretary's position in 2007 when Rafael Hui retired.
Henry is best known for his impressive cellar of premium Bordeaux and Burgundy wines. His outstanding contribution as financial secretary was to remove the tax on wine. That won him the gratitude of wine consumers, merchants and importers.
The wine tax abolished in 2008 catapulted Hong Kong beyond London and New York to become the premier wine auction capital of the world. In 2007 the value of wine imported into HK was US$185 million. In 2010 wine import soared to US$858 million - much of that destined for the mainland.
As with Art Auctions, it is the gush of mainland cash driving the wine auction market. Cynics label this as money laundering with prestige attached.
Given his privileged upbringing, love of fine wine and the lifestyle it connotes, Henry is an affable sort who never needed to cloak-and-dagger his way to the top.
He treats his associates and subordinates with courtesy and has an easy, relaxed style. The civil service is very comfortable with Henry Tang. He is very much hands-off and let's the bureaucrats get on with their duties without harassment.
Awkward in public and unable to coherently address unscripted Q&A, Henry comes across as not having his fingers on the pulse of the society he may be called to lead.
Business tycoons are most comfortable with him.
CY Leung (Earnest) wants the job, has an agenda
The civil service is wary and nervous of CY Leung. He is the kind of driven boss they dread. Life will not be comfortable for clock-watchers and time-servers under a CY Leung regime.
Unlike Henry, Leung Chun-ying is the son of a policeman. He obtained a diploma in surveying at HK Poly, then went on to Bristol Poly to complete a BA in Real Estate Management.
When he returned to HK, he joined Jones Lang Wooton in 1977. Within 5 years Leung was chairman of its HK Branch, reportedly earning HK$10million. He was admired in local circles as the "Emperor of the Working Class".
His colleagues and associates in the real estate business acknowledge his skills, knowledge, leadership and organizational abilities.
He was a former chairman of the HK branch of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors and president of the HK Institute of Surveyors. He has chaired the councils of Lingnan and City Universities.
He served as advisor on land reform to Shenzen, Tianjin and Shanghai municipalities. He is international economic advisor for Hebei province.
It was CY Leung's credentials as a very competent real estate strategist, leader and organizer, which propelled him into the sights of the Communist Party looking for talent in Hong Kong.
He has been the 'Convenor' of the Unofficial members of the Executive Council (the CE's cabinet) till he resigned in September to stand for CE. Donald Tsang has retained him to help shape his final Policy Address.
CY is best remembered for supporting CH Tung in his 1997 plan to build 85,000 new flats to increase affordable housing stock so that at least 70% of HK residents would be able to afford homes over 10 years. The Home Ownership Scheme (HOS) planned to sell public housing to means-qualified residents at 30-40% below market prices.
In 2003 the HOS scheme was mothballed by the HK government. Private developers are not supportive of an increased stock of public housing. They are not interested in 70% of the population (nearly 5 million) having access to flats below market prices.
Two candidates. One almost disinterested.
CY Leung is actively meeting community groups across Hong Kong. He seems to have an appreciation for the plight of the under-class and the widening rich-poor gap. Ordinary people can relate to him. He reaches out. He listens. He takes notes.
Henry is taking the position of an heir waiting to be crowned. He is not going down to interact with society, declare his agenda, solicit support or do any more than wait to be confirmed by Beijing.
CY Leung is the outsider who must generate a wave of popular hope. He badly wants to become the next CE and claims to have an agenda to get HK moving again.
Given the last 15 years of coasting, HK needs bold measures to re-ignite its dynamism. It must deploy its wealth sensibly to make life bearable for the poor and sandwich classes.
Between the two candidates, CY Leung deserves to be given a chance to show what he can do for Hong Kong.
However, given Beijing's ear for the business lobby and paranoic fear of 'instability', it may opt for the status-quo. The minders are sure of Henry. They are not too sure of CY. He thinks too deeply and hath a mean and hungry look.
ENDS
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