Is the Reform Genie out of the bottle in Myanmar?

The Lady will prevail

President pledges comprehensive reform
Currently on a state visit to Singapore with a delegation of ministers and businessmen, Myanmar president Thein Sein made his most explicit commitment to democratic reform and an overhaul of the moribund economy and government infrastructure.


"We want democracy to thrive" he declared, "I wish to assure you that I shall endeavour to establish a healthy democracy in Myanmar. We want a brighter future for our people." He asked the international community to support Myanmar's reform path, noting that the transition is fraught with challenges.

Pres.Thein Sein is serious

A Singapore-Myanmar Technical Cooperation Agreement was signed to cover technical assistance and training for the legal, banking, finance, trade, tourism and urban planning sectors. Singapore will also provide English language, technical and vocational education to help Myanmar emerge from its decades of isolation and under-investment in manpower.


All through 2011 Myanmar has taken measures to release political prisoners, legalize its main opposition party and relax controls on media and the Internet. These are all part of a package of reforms known as the 'roadmap to democracy'. This time it looks real.


Courage to face a future that is unknown
Daw Aung San Suu Kyi has re-registered her National League for Democracy Party (NLDP) to contest the April 1 by-elections for 48 seats. These fell vacant when legislators were elevated to ministerial positions. Of the 48 seats, 40 are for the 420-strong Lower House, 6 for the Upper House and 2 for Regional Assemblies.


While the number of constituencies the NLDP is contesting seems small, it does set an important marker for representative democracy in Myanmar. There are a further 5 Lower House and 12 State/Region seats pending which were skipped during the November 2010 elections due to security concerns.


When queried about the wisdom of participating in a political framework defined by the military and stacked with regime proxies, the 66-year old Nobel Laureate is amazingly upbeat: "Elements in the government genuinely desire reform....if we wait only for solid guarantees, we can never proceed. We have to take risks. We need the courage to face a future that is really not known to us."


Even if the NLDP wins all the 40 Lower House seats it contests in April, it will still barely yield 9.5% of influence in parliament. The Lady's strong words and sharp challenge to the recently cobbled Constitution may seem Quixotic but she carries disproportionate moral authority within the country and internationally. 


When she gets into parliament, she will be the voice of the people even if her party only has a tiny share of the seats. It is expected that the President may offer her a senior government role.


The Constitution needs to be changed!
On her first major campaign tour to the coastal region of Dawei, 615 Km south of Yangon last Sunday, she called for changes to the Constitution which reserves 25 percent of seats for the military, allows it to appoint cabinet ministers, unilaterally declare a state of emergency and run many critical government functions.


Dawei is where environmental activists protested successfully against the construction of a 4,000 megawatt coal-fired power plant which President Thein Sein surprisingly cancelled. Another 400 megawatt power plant is still on the drawing board as the region has been designated for major industrial projects of deep-sea port, steel mill and a petrochemical plant. Infrastructure of railways and highways are also planned to connect to Thailand.


"There are certain laws which are obstacles to the freedom of the people. We will strive to abolish these laws within the framework of parliament." She has also called for transparency and accountability of government. "Elections must be free and fair. Any government which lies must be removed."


She wants an end to the military harassment of ethnic minorities, which in Myanmar include the Kachins, Karens, Kerenni, Shan, Tavoyan and Mon. "If there is one person who remains without independence, it means the entire country lacks independence." She favours an alignment of central government and provincial interests through promotion of sustainable tourism and environmentally responsible development.


The internal warring since 1948 has drained government finances, diverting budgets to military spending without resolution. It has led to abuses in the field and increasing disaffection of the minorities. The alienation has allowed warlords in the provinces to build their own private armies to resist Yangon forces and give cover for smuggling of timber, gemstones and heroin which do not benefit their populations. 


As the provinces are rich in natural resources, there is great economic incentive for the central government to seek access and control. Until there is an agreed platform to share benefits, resources will remain unharvested for development while all sides waste time on armed skirmishes. The people are caught in the middle.


Flashback: NLDP wins 1990 Election, gets disenfranchised
The 1990 elections were called by the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC) after the protests and riots of 1987 triggered by the cancellation of 25-, 35- and 75-Kyat notes without compensation. The street protests and their violent suppression brought down the military-inspired, nominally civilian government of the sole political party then allowed, the Burma Socialist Programme Party (BSPP). The generals shunted the BSPP front aside and suspended the constitution for military rule.


The BSPP had codified the "Burmese Way of Socialism" - a fusion of Nationalism, Buddhism and Marxism which continued to foster inefficient state control of the economy, rampant corruption, widespread cross-border smuggling, a huge black market in consumer goods and currency, plus an over-rated Kyat with confusing multiple exchange values, discouraging trade contracts.


The NLDP won more than 80% of parliamentary seats in the 1990 general election. SLORC prevented the convening of the new parliament, saying the elections were for drafting a new constitution. A National Convention (NC) was set up in 1993 to draft the new constitution. The NLDP withdrew from the NC in 1995 and was expelled shortly after. The NC was suspended in 1996.


In 1997 SLORC changed its name to the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC). This Orwellian re-labelling repeats every time a version of government promoted by the military fails. In Jan 2001 the SPDC announced a rapproachment with the NLDP, releasing about 200 of its imprisoned members and freeing The Lady from house arrest in May 2002.


On a tour of the north in 2003, Daw Suu Kyi's motorcade was assailed by armed thugs, leaving several of her supporters killed and injured. No group has been charged for the unprovoked attack. She was taken into 'protective custody'. That led to outraged international condemnation and dismay within ASEAN - of which Myanmar had become a full member in 1997. There is suspicion that the organized ambush of her motorcade was part of the internal tussle between progressive and hard-line factions within the regime.


With an economy on the brink of collapse and tightening economic sanctions by Western governments, the SPDC revived the National Convention, which met in spells through 2004, 2005 and 2006. It disallowed any query of the intentions of the SPDC and placed restrictions on the scope of debate. The NLDP continued to boycott the resurrected NC on grounds that many of its members were still in prison and the limitations placed on open discussion defeats its purpose.


SPDC held another nation-wide election in November 2010, boycotted by the NLDP and installed another nominally civilian administration called the Union Solidarity & Development Party (USDP) on March 30, 2011. General Thein Sein was elected president. He wears civilian clothes in office.


No revenge but continue economic sanctions
The Lady - as she is affectionately known, has been consistent in not seeking the overthrow of the regime that disenfranchised her party. She advocates meaningful dialogue but insists on the continuation of economic sanctions by Western governments and international bodies like the United Nations.


Her insistence on blocking Western aid and trade has upset many local NGOs starved of funding for much needed basic medical, rural agriculture and education programs. The sanctions have also delayed vital investment in infrastructure for highways, bridges, railways, communications, power, water etc. The prolonged sanctions and economic isolation have hit ordinary people the most.


She must be aware of the hardships suffered daily by Myanmar citizens but is keenly conscious that allowing premature withdrawal of economic sanctions will not push the democracy agenda forward but only prolong military rule. She opted to focus on democratic reform and getting the military back to barracks.


She says the international community is poised to help Myanmar "once we are on an irreversible road to democracy." She is pushing for that momentum to be unstoppable.


Military men smile on The Lady
Her unwavering stand may have convinced the junta that rehabilitating her could unlock desperately needed foreign investment, expertise, technology, aid and trade.


President Thein Sein surprised citizens and political observers when he invited Daw Aung San Suu Kyi to his official residence for a meeting on August 19, 2011. He discussed the 7-point roadmap to democracy with her and pledged 'step-by-step' progress, suggesting positive co-operation as the way forward.


She was then invited to the government-sponsored conference on macro-economic reforms where she was accorded VVIP status. The change of attitude was evident in the welcoming smiles of the generals and bureaucrats - many jostling for photo opps with her!


Another 600 NLDP and other opposition members have been released from prisons. The government says there are no more political prisoners in detention. Many dissidents have been charged with 'criminal activity' as defined by the military. The claim of no more political prisoners is contested by dissidents and their families. 


The Lady's meeting with the president was reported on front pages with pictures. The routine vitriolic commentary against her and her party has disappeared from State press. Her portraits are openly displayed and sold on the streets along with T-shirts and NLDP flags.


Both Hilary Clinton, US Secretary of State and William Hague, British Foreign Secretary made high-profile trips to Yangon recently to encourage the process of democratisation. The US has since declared it will upgrade its representation to full ambassador status as the reforms continue.


Daw Aung San Suu Kyi has taken the generals at their word. She has placed her trust in the 'roadmap to democracy' at enormous risk to herself and her supporters. ASEAN's strategy of 'constructive engagement' seems to be finally yielding positive results, while the West's sanctions add urgency.


Myanmar is due to assume chairmanship of ASEAN in 2014. The world hopes to welcome Myanmar as a responsible member of the international community before then. 
ENDS

Beijing professor trashes rule of law in Hong Kong as colonial relic

Angry YouTube exchange on HK subway triggers name-calling
A YouTube video last week showed an altercation on Hong Kong's mass transit subway between a mainland family and local commuters. A Beijing TV talk show featured the video, sparking angry denunciation of Hong Kong people as 'dogs' and 'trash' by a university professor.

Prof Kong's views are widely shared. Northerners historically resent Southerners

Professor Kong Qingdong of Peking University has a reputation for regressive views forcibly expressed in foul language on campus and on TV talk shows. Apart from claiming direct lineage from Confucius as the 73rd generation descendent, he inspired the Confucian Peace Prize awarded to Vladimir Putin last year. 


He appeals to the doctrinaire Maoist remnants of the Party and champions Confucian authoritarianism while the rest of China moves on. His continued tenure at prestigious Peking University indicates he enjoys official support for his hardline conservatism.


Rule of law for 'trash' societies
Professor Kong dismissed the rule of law as a colonial mechanism to beat Hong Kong residents. He also slammed Singapore for its laws on smoking. He equated both as inferior people who need to be whipped into correct behaviour. The need for the rule of law is evidence of 'trash' societies.


"Speaking of the rule of law, the British brought it there and let it stay. How did the British deal with these Hong Kong dogs? They gave them a good lashing. They lash them harshly. Today the Beijingers would say that these people f----g deserve a physical lashing."


When the talk show host commented that the environment is cleaner in Hong Kong, the Professor's retort was "Why is it cleaner? Because they rely on rule of law. They do not rely on the quality of the people. Just like in Singapore, you are fined 5,000 dollars for smoking. When you have to resort to the legal system to maintain order, it shows that your people have no quality and no self-consciousness. You won't do what you are supposed to unless you get a beating. This is summarized in one word: Trash."


Eating not allowed on MTR
The regulation forbidding the consumption of food and drink on the MTR is largely followed by Hong Kong commuters. Perhaps the mainland family were not aware of it. Perhaps they chose to ignore it. The eating of the noodles on the train and its spill onto the floor of the carriage provoked the angry exchange. It was captured on a mobile and posted on YouTube.


'Teacher Kong' continued to castigate Hong Kong for being ungrateful and lacking patriotism. "Hong Kong has been returned to China for so long already but their hearts and minds have not returned yet. There are still plenty of running dogs for the colonialists. In front of them they are dogs but in front of mainlanders they are wolves."


Resentment against South has historical roots
The impoverished farmers and fishermen of nineteenth century Guangdong and Fujian provinces ventured out to South East Asian shores and the Americas in search of better lives for themselves and their families. Their descendants over several generations have established successful trading businesses, enjoying freedoms of travel, expression and political participation not yet available in the land of their forefathers.


The imperial rulers in Beijing regarded Southerners traditionally as disloyal and unpatriotic for leaving. The Shanghainese are viewed as too commercially driven. The fortunes and better lives the emigrants built abroad has been a source of friction ever since.

Sun Yat Sen hung out in HK while
pushing to replace Imperial rule

CKS declared the rival ROC
in Taiwan after losing the fight

The South has been the hotbed of anti-imperial and anti-feudal sentiment and revolts. The nationalist republic of Sun Yat Sen declared on the demise of dynastic rule, was financed and harboured in the South. The challenge to Mao's communist forces was led by Chiang Kai Shek from his Shanghai stronghold. It was through the ports of Canton and Shanghai that Western trade negotiated Imperial China using local agents and collaborators.


The press and magazines in Guangzhou and Shenzen continue to push the envelop on media commentary about policies and personalities.


Failure to use Putonghua
The Cantonese defeated the British in one way consistently - they refused to use English as the language of the streets through 150 years of colonial rule. In darkest Africa, the English language took root easily under British administrations. The fierce adherence to native dialect and culture continued in Hong Kong under the British and in Guangdong even after the Communist revolution of 1949. Cantonese literature, movies, music and songs continue to thrive locally and abroad as the most successful linguistic creative export to the diaspora.


The Central government in the mid-80s from sheer frustration, denounced "the 50 million laggards in the South who refuse to speak Putonghua." Cantonese enthusiasts on the other hand argue that it is the closest dialect to Tang dynasty Chinese, still retaining ancient Chinese expressions, while the seat of power in the north has been heavily influenced by Mongol rule, culture and language. 


Mainland births to secure Hong Kong residency
There is continuing resentment about mainland women using loopholes in Hong Kong's immigration processes to gain residency rights for babies born in local hospitals. That surge has displaced many Hong Kong mothers from access to maternity facilities at public hospitals. 

HK women are impatient with the foot-dragging
on immigration policy and controls

While a quota has been declared to manage the competitive balance in public and private hospitals, middlemen have schemed to use 'emergency' access to defeat regulatory control. Instead of pre-booked and scheduled deliveries, imminently birthing mainland women are sneaked past immigration and rushed into emergency wards. Immigration personnel trained to intercept these cases are now being deployed. 


There is political pressure to seek another "interpretation and change of the Basic Law" to bar mainland babies from the residency qualification. The Hong Kong administration is reluctant to hot-foot to Beijing for 're-interpretations' which would tatter the already fragile Basic Law. They are seeking cross-border co-operation to stop the middlemen and to remove the abuse of the existing channels for agreed mainland immigration quotas.


It says more than all Professor Kong's denunciations of Hong Kong, when mainland mothers risk their lives and that of their unborn babies, to secure their children a better future in the HKSAR.


ENDS

French wine the new sophistication in China. More consumed than is made!

US$450 for empty bottle to recyclers!

The whole point about being a 'gloriously rich' comrade is to flaunt it. As Mercedes and BMW cars become commonplace, French wine is the new sophistication. The scramble to impress business associates and government officials with expensive wines has put China firmly on the global wine map and is boosting Hong Kong's role in the trade.

More French wine consumed in China than is made!
Statistics for top Bordeaux consumption in China indicate volumes far in excess, annually, of Bordeaux fine wine production! Local merchants have not missed the opportunity to profit from faking it as they have other luxury products. Consumer ignorance works to their benefit. Cheap bulk red wine from Chile is imported and bottled with fake Bordeaux labels.

Consumers overcome the cough-mixture taste of doctored wines and immature Bordeaux with blocks of ice, Seven-Up and Coke. There are no complaints as few have any clue what quality wine should taste like.

Shanghai Daily reported one enterprising merchant importing bulk reds through Hong Kong, then bottling it aboard a factory-ship into recycled and fake Chateau Lafite bottles. CCTV the national broadcaster, cited the case of a 5-star hotel in Dongguan, South China, moving 40,000 bottles of Lafite annually. The Chateau Lafite annual allocation to the entire China market is only 50,000 bottles.

Although Chateau Lafite produces about 200,000 bottles annually, China records about 3 million bottles sold every year, making 80-90% of Lafite fakes. They sell at US$7,800 a bottle at some restaurants. Formal business entertainment is expected to serve Lafite as the dinner wine. Businessmen dare not disappoint their guests. Empty bottles of real Lafite trade at near US$450 a bottle to recyclers!

Like the European luxury handbag, watch and couture labels in China, serious punters have more confidence in purchasing the same brands in Hong Kong.

Hong Kong wine auction capital of the world!
In 2008 the Hong Kong government abolished all taxes on wine. The number of wine related companies registered in 2008 was 850. By 2010 that grew to 3,550. Staff engaged in the wine trade increased from 5,000 to 40,000.

The zero-tax situation catapulted the city into auction-wine parity with London and New York. Much of that demand comes from China where a combination of hot money and new rich seeking social status have rushed to this liquid asset.

Wine auctioneers Christie's and Sotheby's of London plus New York's Acker, Merrall & Condit, have enjoyed record sales and profits in Hong Kong from 2009. They now hold multiple auctions through the year in Hong Kong of vintage Bordeaux and private collections.

Charles Curtis, Christie's head of wine sales puts it delicately: "One must have a nuanced view of the market. Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore have relatively mature buyers. Mainland China has the characteristics of a newer market. They tend to focus on the top-line stuff, which explains why sales of Bordeaux such as Lafite-Rothschild and Haut Brion have skyrocketed."

Serena Sutcliffe, Sotheby's wine chief adds: "They're building bigger houses and want a cellar. It's an important part of business and social life."

No storage discipline. Mismatch with Chinese food
Stephen Quinn who taught for a year at Ningpo and writes a weekly wine column for China Daily, is appalled by the lack of proper wine storage. "I encountered some dreadfully abused imported wines. Good labels which on uncorking, displayed none of the aroma, flavour or taste that I associated with them - a sure sign of storage-trauma from Europe and within China. Temperature and relative humidity fluctuations can kill the best of wine. It is fragile like cigars."

Stephen who now works and lives in Hong Kong is relieved to be in a city with a more mature wine culture and responsible merchants. He is all too aware how local traders exploit the China market where consumers readily believe everything they are told about wine. He blames the Robert Parker factor for the excitement about red Bordeaux for investment and banquet wine status. He observes "Most Chinese food does not pair well with red Bordeaux. But people still try to match them - with disastrous consequences for the cuisine and the diners".
 
Annabel Jackson teaches at the vocational hotel school in Macau, Instituto de Formacao Turistica (IFT). She is impressed by the hunger for knowledge about wine among her students from the mainland (about 1/3rd of her class). Her students prefer white wines over red due to their natural sweetness, lack of tannic bite and New World reds (less 'sour') over Old World reds.

Thumbs down for Bordeaux with Chinese food

French cartoon book lampoons Parker

Annabel says there are temperature-storage-transport issues with Hong Kong as well below the premium distributors. Many local Chinese inhibited by language and perceived cost, frequent local stockists in the New Territories and Kowloon who also ply Chinese restaurants with red Bordeaux.


100-point Parker Rating arrives
Lawyer Robert Parker who publishes the Wine Advocate, created a 100-point rating system to score wines -  providing American consumers a dummy's guide. The country of fast-food and instant coffee took to that instantly. Retailers would badge Parker ratings on bottles. Consumers looked no further. It freed them from learning, knowing, tasting and discriminating.

The Prophet speaks
Parker's Wine Advocate states: "...wine is no different from any consumer product. There are specific standards of quality that full time wine professionals recognize."  That is the most cynical, self-serving statement about the pleasure of enjoying wine. It suggests wine drinkers defer to a coterie of  'full time wine professionals' who will reduce taste to numbers. He has held the wine market hostage for nearly four decades, perhaps more by default than by design.

Cynical wine merchants and auctioneers chasing Chinese hot money are parlaying Parker points to flog their bottles. It simplifies everything.
ENDS