HK's chief executive selection reverts to two-horse race

CY Leung to be next chief executive?
A semblance of order has returned to the chief executive selection process after Beijing's original man, Henry Tang, made himself un-selectable. Two more hopefuls almost joined the race. That would have made the circus spin out of control.


The selection criteria requires the winning candidate to secure at least 601 votes from the electoral college of 1,200. Too many contenders would have endangered that outcome.


Tsang Yok-sing, president of the Legislative Council, pulled out just before nominations closed. He was advised to do so. The DAB had 'reserved' a block of 140 votes pending his decision. 


Regina Ip failed to aggregate the minimum 150 nominations from tycoons, functional constituencies and the DAB - Beijing's largest above-ground representatives in LegCo. The baggage she carries made the puppeteers nervous. No nod for her.


This was a moment of truth for the former secretary for security who fancied herself the most competent chief executive choice. The DAB has not forgiven her ingratitude after being gifted its support in the 2008 HK Island constituency election. The professional constituencies showed her the door. 


Tycoons want Henry to stay. Citizens say nay
It was a disastrous few weeks for Henry Tang. Despite negative feedback from daily press, disillusioned supporters and the polls, candidate Tang carries on like nothing happened. Neither shame nor rejection has reached him. 


The 18 Feb edition of The Economist has him as the "sort of amiable, vaguely trustworthy duffer..." which sums up Henry.


At the first debate held 3 March featuring the three CE hopefuls at City University before a 500-strong audience of the public and environmental activists, the post-debate votes re-confirmed Henry Tang's rejection - he got 2 percent whereas CY Leung received sixty-three percent while Albert Ho of the Democratic Party had 23 percent. 


Everyone knows that the Democratic Party is unacceptable to Beijing. Albert Ho had earlier jokingly told the Financial Times of London that if he ever got selected by the 1,200 electoral college, it would be finally revealed that he is a mole of the Communist Party! 


It will be a huge relief for Hong Kong to be spared being bossed by Henry Tang. China has to whisper to the selectors so he does not. It cannot risk another massive street march like the 2003 outrage which felled Tung Chee-hwa and Regina Ip for defying HK citizens in attempting to pass into legislation the Article 23 Security Bill.


It proved then that using a rubber-stamp legislature to enforce Beijing's diktat is not the way to rule. HK citizens are acutely aware of their rights and will face down any government that schemes to whittle away its existing freedoms of assembly, protest and press. So long as HK is denied universal franchise, its citizens will remain suspicious and super-vigilant.


Public unforgiving of govt-tycoon collusion
There is a sea-change in public attitudes to the privileged elites. Their ability to flout rules which ordinary citizens have to live by, is being aggressively challenged. 


The widening wealth gap, unaffordable housing, lack of a safety net for the poorest and enormous budget surpluses not being used to solve systemic problems, all rankle badly. They speak of an administration badly out of touch with the people it rules.


The rough treatment incumbent chief executive Donald Tsang got in the press and in LegCo for consorting with tycoons aboard luxury yachts and private jets, and accepting a penthouse below market rent for retirement, was a signal lesson for legislators, civil servants and the next chief executive. 


The simmering resentment against big business-government collusion has erupted too strongly for a return to 'business as usual'.


The 'two systems' are irreconcilable
Although Henry's extra-marital dalliances and illegal property extensions seem trivial by China benchmarks, the furious public response starkly etched the gulf separating Hong Kong and mainland attitudes to public officials and their conduct. 


Leaders and party functionaries in China wield enormous clout. Citizens fear their ability to abuse power arbitrarily. Offending even a minor apparatchik can be costly to self and family. Terror rules. 


Challenging injustices can be risky to life and limb as the villagers of Wukan discovered when they protested the illegal sale of their lands by party officials. Their protest committee was detained and their leader beaten to death in prison.


In Hong Kong, civil servants are expected to be polite, helpful and correct in the discharge of their duties and responsibilities. Hong Kong citizens do not fear civil or uniformed public servants. There is mutual respect. Society operates efficiently without the need to bribe or beg public officials. 


HK residents are confident their courts and legal system will protect their fundamental rights. They do not expect to be kidnapped by their government in the dead of night or be beaten to sign fictitious confessions in prison. They expect their police to be law abiding and not thugs in uniform.


CY Leung right man at the right time?
Hong Kong lost 15 years through incompetent leaders appointed by Beijing. Tung Chee-hwa was a washout and Donald Tsang a nervous schoolboy waiting to be scolded on 'work-report' trips to Beijing. He will be thrashed royally this time round.


Neither had the charisma, conviction nor confidence to drive policies forward to make HK a better place for its residents. Henry Tang if selected, would stretch that to 20 years of treading water. 


The scandals which crushed Tang's CE ambition and ruined Tsang's legacy, did enormous good in surfacing fundamental issues about purpose of government and public accountability of officials.


CY Leung has conducted a measured and dignified campaign so far. He has invested serious time visiting the grass-roots to appreciate the needs of the neglected sectors of HK society. 


He is thoughtful, does his homework and crafts programs which he should now be articulating more forcefully. It is these very qualities which make the tycoons nervous. 


CY Leung does not need to keep proving his loyalty to Beijing - a constant distraction which drained Donald Tsang. If anyone can speak for HK and be heard in Beijing, CY can. 


No time to waste
Budget surpluses are there to be deployed judiciously for social good and equitable economic growth. That is a principle the property and construction tycoons vehemently oppose. They would rather pour concrete for highways, runways, railways and bridges at huge expense whether needed or not, or detrimental to environment and public health. 


It is the public purse the tycoons scheme to stream for decades into their pockets with the collusion of government. It is time for Hong Kong to plot a new course. The cosy government-big business nexus has to be curbed. A fairer distribution of opportunity and access has to include a broader swathe of small entrepreneurs and medium sized businesses. 


Housing affordability for the poor and the middle class has to be addressed. It is just too fundamental to be neglected any longer. What about the decade-long dodge on improving air quality and reducing traffic pollution? What about effective fair competition rules to bust cartels? 


What about the wasteful Trade Development Corporation which is uneconomic and heavily subsidized, running trade exhibitions which the HK private sector is fully competent to manage without subsidies? 


If CY does address these long-neglected issues in a forthright way, he can reinvigorate Hong Kong and gain the respect of its business sector and residents. He has to carry a big stick to get the civil service moving. They are masters at forming committees to 'study' issues and waste time as a tactic for inaction. 


He must find a competent and respected chief secretary to replace the woefully inadequate and inarticulate Stephen Lam. CY will need an effective civil service overlord who can make things happen and is not the classic time-server and pen-pusher.


There are also too many consultants feeding at the trough. It will be useful to make all their reports open to public scrutiny. Why should consultant reports on public projects remain government secrets? How many of these consultants are proxies for big business interests? CY has to hack through all that fast. 


The next chief executive has his work cut out for him. If he gets his act together fast he can re-energize Hong Kong. He may even get re-elected by a landslide through universal franchise in 2017. The one mistake he should not make is to revive the Article 23 Security Bill which HK citizens unequivocally rejected in 2003.


ENDS

Who's Afraid of CY Leung?

CY is not Regina Ip's favourite person

An Establishment conspiracy?
A grim-faced CY Leung stares out of the front page of the South China Morning Post on Friday. The HK government had confirmed his conflict of interest omission on a jury panel selecting designs for an arts centre hub project 10 years ago. The company involved was disqualified when it was discovered that CY Leung was an advisor through his firm DTZ Holdings.

The incident was re-surfaced by East Week magazine of the Sing Tao News media group. Charles Ho, chairman of the group had gone on TV recently to question CY Leung's credentials for the CE position after CY accused the newspaper of conducting a smear campaign against him. CY Leung was a board member of the Sing Tao News but resigned after the falling out.

Was CE race slipping away from Henry Tang? It looked like a shoo-in for Tang when Hong Kong's tycoons closed ranks to declare support for his 2012 chief executive bid. The selection by the 1,200 Election Commission is due on 25 March. The third CE of Hong Kong will take office 1st July 2012 when incumbent Donald Tsang's second term expires.

Henry just doesn't convince

 Hong Kong's big-business power brokers seem genuinely panicked about the prospect of CY Leung becoming the HKSAR boss. They took time off from their busy schedules to rally for Henry at the HK Convention & Exhibition Centre before Christmas last year. Li Ka Shing (chairman, Hutchison Whampoa), Allan Zeman (chairman, Ocean Park & Father of Lan Kwai Fong) and David KP Li (chairman, Bank of East Asia) were some of the territory's icons who endorsed him. David K P Li has also taken on the onerous task of managing Tang’s election campaign.

Despite this formidable line-up of oligarchs, candidate Tang has been trailing badly in public opinion polls. The 16-19 January poll by Dr Robert Chung of HKU on a sample of 1,022 respondents, recorded 29.7% in favour of Henry Tang, 42.9% for CY Leung and 9.1% for Albert Ho, chairman of the Democratic Party. That is a gap of 13.2% in favour of CY Leung between the two front runners. It has been a similar story on other polls too.

Can CY get 150 nominations to contest?
Despite his lead in the opinion polls, CY Leung has only about 50 of his pledged candidates in the Election Committee. How he is going to secure the requisite 150 nominations is a moot point. Both Henry Tang and the Democratic camp have in excess of 200 pledged candidates each.

The nomination window opens on Valentine's Day 14 Feb and closes on 29 Feb. Tang has avoided a public debate with the other contenders so far. He says he will wait for the official nominations to be tabled before that.

Beijing has not indicated its preference between the two 'approved' candidates. That keeps the party faithful in limbo and anxious. They do not want to jump the gun. They are trained to wait for the whisper. CY is widely regarded the preferred choice among hardcore leftists in Hong Kong. They are very comfortable with him.  

The DAB (Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong) is the largest pro-Beijing party in the Legislative Council and has 147 seats on the 1,200 Election Committee which will select the chief executive. Party chairman Tam Yiu-chung has hinted the party may leave the vote to individual choice as there is no internal consensus to block-vote for either candidate and no pressure from Beijing to do so.

One intriguing option for CY Leung is to court the Democratic camp to shift their 'surplus' nominations to enable him to meet the 150 threshold. There are hints that feelers have been put out to that end. This poses Machiavellian opportunity and ideological conflict for both the Democratic camp and CY.

China defines CE criteria
Director Wang Guangya who heads the Hong Kong-Macau Affairs Office, reports directly to the State Council, China's cabinet. On a visit to Hong Kong in June 2011 to address the Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions (HKFTU) Wang listed three criteria for the future chief executive: demonstrated love of China and Hong Kong, competence in governance and "a high degree of acceptance among the general public, who should feel that the person elected is not bad".

That has given added symbolic significance to the public polling activity of the Hong Kong and Baptist Universities. Independent polling and disclosure of public views on government does not sit comfortably with the Communist Party. Even consumer marketing surveys in China have to obtain special permits and be approved by the authorities.

So director Wang's listing of popularity and respect as a criteria for the HKSAR chief executive is very progressive thinking for the most important job in Hong Kong - whose 7 million residents are excluded from participation.

Addressing a visiting delegation of HKSAR university students in Beijing last year, Wang roundly criticised the timidity of the British-trained administration, stating that they "still don't know how to be a boss and how to be a master". He observed that they are now in charge but unable to take bold initiatives.

That was the clearest indication yet that the PRC is unimpressed by the HKSAR’s first chief executive Tung Chee-hwa and incumbent Donald Tsang, who between them wasted 14 years through lack of effective leadership on an array of issues like public housing, air pollution, social safety net for the poorest and relief for a middle class squeezed by inflation and runaway property prices.

But the trio now standing for CE do not seem to be right either. Candidate Tang looks weak and ineffectual. Candidate CY Leung scares tycoons and ordinary folk alike. Candidate Albert Ho is unacceptable to Beijing.

Despite running record budget surpluses, the administration seems bereft of problem-solving ideas or the will to shunt the property cartel aside. The collusion between the construction lobby and the administration has created questionable infrastructure schemes to pour more concrete on a third runway, reclaim land from the sea and build long bridges and railway connections to the mainland.

The claimed job-creation effects of these schemes has little relevance for Hong Kong residents. It will only mean more mainland and Third World labour being shipped in. It will certainly enrich the local construction industry and related professional firms - all of whom have well entrenched networks within the administration.

Vision, leadership and a genuine connect with society is absent and HK citizens are fed up. The crying needs of society seem not to excite urgent focus or action. The dramatic and sudden HK$6,000 handout to every HK resident in the 2011 budget was the high-water-mark of societal thinking in the Donald Tsang administration. It was a gesture copied from the Macau SAR where casino income was cascading into government coffers.

Director Wang is right on this count.  

Pollsters under fire
Both universities and the professors who supervise the surveys have come under attack from the leftist Chinese language newspapers Ta Kung Pau, Wen Wei Pau and the English language China Daily.

Dr Zhao Xinshu of Baptist University released his survey showing Henry Tang reducing CY Leung's lead before the full sampling data was processed. It was premature and academically unsound. Dr Zhao quit on 6 Feb, the day the Baptist University released its 12 page investigation report.

The head of Baptist University has resisted further investigations, warning of unleashing “white terror” a loaded reference to the worst excesses of the Cultural Revolution. There is serious concern about academic freedoms eroding in HK.

Hao Tiechuan, director of publicity, culture and sport at the Central Government Liaison Office in Hong Kong (the former Xinhua News Agency renamed in 2000) took particular objection to one of  Hong Kong University's recent surveys which noted that more residents identified themselves primarily as HK citizens first rather than as citizens of China.

Dr Chung who heads the Public Opinion Poll (POP) at HKU has been tracking this particular sentiment for 12 years. He says respondents' identification preferences go up and down, influenced by positive events like the Beijing Olympics and declines on criticism from Chinese officials and China's abuse of dissidents at home.

Dr Robert Chung stands his ground against "Cultural Revolution-style" criticism. He has invited the left wing newspapers and other critics to a dialogue to answer any question on his survey methodology. Chung says so far no one from the Liaison Office, the mainland press or the university authorities have contacted him.

Meanwhile, Chung has devised a 'civic referendum' to enable members of the public to indicate their preferred CE candidate on 23 March, two days before the 25 March Election Committee voting. He says eligible voters will be able to access a polling station and participate online and through mobile phones. He would not seek funding from the university, the HK government or political parties. He hopes the HK$500,000 needed for this project will come from public donations.

ENDS